Aurora sad Update: May 14/15
Good evening, everyone!
We find ourselves in a potentially lucky scenario over the next few days with the chance for aurora displays.
Clear skies will make a return for many of us tonight and tomorrow night! While it won’t it be totally clear for everyone, there will be portions of each night where clear skies could last for a few hours at a time. Check your local cloud forecast to see. The Moon is not an issue as a New Moon is approaching.
Anytime over the next 24 hours, we are expecting a CIR (co rotating interaction region) to shock our planet ahead of a CHHSS (coronal hole high speed stream). The initial shock from the CIR could cause minor to moderate geomagnetic storming (G1/G2), and allow us to see aurora displays are little farther south than usual. As long as the solar wind connects to the Earth’s magnetic field with a decent amount of strength, aurora displays could be viewable down into SW Ontario.
Assuming the solar wind data is favourable, tonight and tomorrow night would be ideal aurora chasing for clear sky locations. Monitoring solar wind data will be important tonight and tomorrow to determine when the CIR arrives. Brief periods of moderate geomagnetic storming are possible.
After the intital shock, fast solar wind will arrive and that could produce aurora displays over the long weekend as well. For those of us in the south, the CIR will be our best bet for brighter aurora displays, so let’s hope the solar wind cooperates. On camera displays are more likely for the majority of us.
Predicting exactly when the aurora will occur is nearly impossible, so please do not ask where and when you can see it. Simply download an app such as Space Weather Live and familiarize yourself with the real-time aurora activity section that shows multiple sets of data and graphs. We want a increased IMF strength (Bt) and sustained period of southward orientation (Bz) in order for the auroral oval to expand southward and have the ability to produce brighter aurora display during substorms. Faster solar wind above 500km/s will increase substorm activity. Currently the solar wind data is not favourable for southern parts of the province. Patience is the name of the game right now.
You can learn a lot from this group just by reading other group members posts and checking after dark for real time photo reports from chasers around the province. Feel free to share your own aurora reports with the Time, Date, and approximate Location of the aurora sighting. We’d love to see it!
Don’t forget to check the featured section at the top of the group page for new forecasts in the future if aurora displays are possible.
Good luck, everyone and may the solar wind and clouds be in your favour!
– Kyle
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CLOUDS/WEATHER
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Partly cloudy to clear skies for many regions tonight. Check your local cloud forecast and satellite imagery to confirm.
Suggested cloud forecast tool: https://www.windy.com
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MOON
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NO MOON! WOOHOO!!
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UPDATES
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Stay tuned with the group, and watch for field reports & forecast updates posted in the Featured section. Please consider posting your field report to the group if you spot the aurora with a photo, date, time, and generalized location.
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VIEWING
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For best-viewing chances, choose a dark side road/shoreline away from city/towns/light pollution, with a clear, dark view of the northern horizon. Only the strongest storms can penetrate the light solutions created by many big cities.
For the best chance, get out of the cities, north of city lights with light pollution to your south (back), and look north when conditions are prime and look for a white/green glow, the aurora arc/oval. Depending on the strength of activity, aurora can appear as a low glow on the horizon, tall bright pillars, movement, or possibly curtains and flickering overhead during strong storm conditions. Viewing aurora in the GTA is extremely rare due to the heavy light pollution. GTA chasers will need to travel to the outskirts of the GTA at minimum for a chance at viewing aurora. Typically for the best chances for all chasers in all cities, the more north and farther from light pollution you travel, the better your chan
Please remember to be aware of your surroundings, especially those with bears, moose, cougars, skunks, and coyotes. Pay attention to trails, drop-offs, rocky terrain, and holes on shorelines and beaches
Never trespass on private property, be mindful of your flashlights, and vehicle headlights when other chasers are nearby. Only build fires in designated areas. Avoid overcrowding popular locations bringing law enforcement. Respect nature and bring out what you bring in. Be mindful of your footprint and respect wildlife and vegetation. Please respect your viewing spot and take any garbage/waste, with you. Consider cleaning up any other garbage or next time you visit you may find the location with a no trespassing sign or…
If chasing alone, please keep your exact location private. If you want to post a report, use a general location (Ex: North of Barrie) or latitude (45N). If chasing alone or with people you’ve never met, always let a friend or family member know where you are. Always be aware of your surroundings. Be cautious driving unpaved roads, especially in spring/fall/winter, and always have a plan if you get stuck. Have a plan for other vehicle issues such as a dead battery or flat tire. It is recommended to bring an emergency kit in your vehicle. Please remember that wireless service can suddenly drop in many locations in Ontario depending on location and geography.
